Using GEFS ensemble model data and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), we generate
probabilistic precipitation forecasts across the contiguous United States.
The model predicts a full Censored Shifted Gamma Distribution (CSGD)
at every land grid point, producing calibrated exceedance probabilities for rolling
12-hour precipitation windows. Animations below show the full forecast horizon for the
latest model cycle.
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Forecast Animation (CONUS)
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Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) Comparison
Each panel compares the ANN-CSGD 24-hour product, the GEFS member-derived 24-hour
product, and the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the selected forecast day.
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